Harry Kane shots on target: the classic Bayern bet builder leg

His season so far

Through Bayern's first six games in 2026-27, all competitions, Kane has eight shots on target: six in five Bundesliga appearances and two in his one Champions League start before mid-October. The game-by-game log, from StatMuse:

1. v Stuttgart, homeBundesliga · 0 SOT
2. at SchalkeBundesliga · 1 SOT
3. at ElversbergBundesliga · 1 SOT
4. v Union Berlin, homeBundesliga · 3 SOT
5. v Bodø/Glimt, homeChampions League · 2 SOT
6. at Augsburg, 2-2Bundesliga · 1 SOT

One number matters more than the average: the floor. In five league games he has hit the target four times. The one blank came in a win where Bayern did not need him to force it — which is exactly the correlation a builder leg lives on.

Why the leg correlates with Bayern to win

Kane is the penalty taker and the striker on a team that creates the most volume in the league. When Bayern win, he has usually touched the ball in shooting positions repeatedly; a goal or a penalty settles the SOT leg by itself. That is why the two legs are played together rather than separately — the same match script drives both.

What the price has to say

Books price star-striker 1+ SOT legs short when they post them. Two real reference points, each seen and dated:

1. England v Croatia, 17 Jun (World Cup opener)

   Kane 1+ shot on target at 1/4 (1.25) — Ladbrokes, via Oddschecker

   implied probability about 80%

2. Bayern at Viking Stavanger, Tue 13 Oct (Champions League)

   Kane 1+ shot on target at 1.06 — bet365 player market, via Statz AI, seen 11 Oct

   implied probability about 94%

At 1.06, the leg alone implies about 94% — before you multiply it by a Bayern win price, which drags the combined price under even money. That is the honest trade-off: the most likely two-leg builder in football is also one of the worst paid. Enhanced-price versions (Paddy Power ran Kane 1+ SOT at 50/1 for new customers v Spain in September) are marketing, not a market price — the 50/1 pays in free bets and caps stakes.

The next chances to play it

Bayern's next two: Viking Stavanger away, Tue 13 Oct (Champions League, Lyse Arena), then RB Leipzig at home, Sat 17 Oct (Bundesliga, Allianz Arena). Away in Stavanger is the fixture where the win leg gets interesting; Leipzig at home is the classic version of this slip.

The rule we hold ourselves to

Every builder we publish is posted before kick-off with the real price and an implied probability, and settled in public afterwards, losers included. Our record, settled either way, is on the record page, and the shape of the two-leg slip is explained in our shots-on-target guide. Today's free builder lives at the matchday slate.

18+. Bet what you can afford to lose. Prices are snapshots, never guarantees.